Australian Open - Men's Preview

Will Novak continue his dominance? Will Roger reassert his? Will Rafa regain his form? Will Murray make his move? and FINALLY will a young gun arrive? These are the stories of the 2012 Australian Open. It's all very intriguing and should set the stage for a dramatic fortnight. The men's draw in Melbourne this year looks remarkably even. No one has an absolutely horrible draw and each of the top seeds face potential stumbling blocks along the way. While the men's game may see significant changes in 2012, it's early days and those changes won't likely happen in Australia. In the end, familiar faces will remain and familiar story lines will likely unfold.

Quarter 1

This is Nole's quarter and it's highly unlikely he will be thwarted from making the semifinals. Tipsarevic, Roddick and (young gun) Raonic loom in this part of the draw, but none are ready (or capable) of toppling a very grooved early season Djokovic. He is fresh, eager and looking for more. A possible fourth round encounter with Raonic will be highly entertaining, but over five sets on a slower hard court it's hard to imagine Raonic upsetting Djokovic. Tipsarevic, playing the best tennis of his life sits in David Ferrer's part of the draw, but we feel like Tipsarevic will experience a letdown and may not even get that far. Either way Ferrer is almost definitely Djokovic's opponent in the quarters. Their last two encounters have been lopsided affairs in favour of both men. This time though the tide will continue to turn for Novak and he will get to his seventh straight Grand Slam semifinal.

Quarter 2

Andy Murray has minefields all over his quarter of the draw, but on early season form alone he will still get through in an uncomplicated fashion. After a tricky first round encounter with American Ryan Harrison he plays a series of talented but not terribly threatening opponents and after an entertaining fourth round clash with Monfils, he should get to what would be a highly anticipated quarterfinal against Jo-Wilfried Tsonga. Both guys are coming into Melbourne off early season wins and late season brilliance. It should be a great clash, but Murray really owns Tsonga and it's very difficult to see Tsonga's go-for-broke style working any better against Murray now than it has in the past.

Quarter 3

Federer. It's simple. No one will bother him here. No disrespect to the likes of Del Potro, Dolgopolov and Fish, but Federer is on a mission and will not be derailed before the semifinals. An interesting fourth round clash with Dolgopolov is likely and a possible quarterfinal clash with Del Potro looms. But we don't think JMDP will get there. The draw will likely hold and the Swiss Maestro will never really be threatened by Fish. Book Fed in the semis.

Quarter 4

If any quarter is not going to go to form it is this one. It's probably a surprising statement since; on paper Nadal has the least threatening draw of the top four seeds. Victorious in Sidney, Jarkko Nieminen has a surge of early season confidence, Tomas Berdych is capable of catching fire and hitting through anyone and they are both in Nadal's section. John Isner who consistently gives Nadal fits is a potential fourth round opponent, but the reason for lack of confidence in Nadal's chances, is not his competition, but in Nadal himself. He showed us nothing in the Abu Dhabi exhibition or in Doha that tells us he's found any answers ahead of the 2012 season. While there is no reason to doubt that his shoulder is sore we can't help wonder if the real injury plaguing Nadal is still mental. He seems to lack the confidence and the will it would take to win in Melbourne. Look for a dark horse semifinalist to come out of this section. We pick John Isner to ride a soft draw (Neimenen notwithstanding) to an upset fourth round win over Nadal. Isner is at even money to get by Berdych or Baghdatis in the quarterfinals and we like his chances to meet Federer in the semifinals.

Semifinals

While we feel Murray is due, we just can't go with a guy who seems to have a mental block at the semis of a major. We also can't forget his semifinal against Djokovic in Rome. He gulped at the enormity of beating Djokovic and ending the 'streak'. He let Nole slip out of the noose and for his part Djokovic showed his mental super powers, the kind of powers that are a pre-requisite against a top player at the later stages of a Grand Slam.

Djokovic defeats Murray
Federer defeats Isner

Final
If this were Flushing Meadows, we would go with Federer, but it's Flinders Park and Djokovic just suits this surface better than Roger. It will be a night match, like last year’s semifinal, and Federer just cannot hit through Nole on this surface (particularly at night). It's also hard to imagine Djokovic getting to this stage, on his favourite surface and letting the chance slip away.

Djokovic defeats Federer