Australian Open - Men's Preview

Will Novak continue his dominance? Will Roger reassert his? Will Rafa regain his form? Will Murray make his move? and FINALLY will a young gun arrive? These are the stories of the 2012 Australian Open. It's all very intriguing and should set the stage for a dramatic fortnight. The men's draw in Melbourne this year looks remarkably even. No one has an absolutely horrible draw and each of the top seeds face potential stumbling blocks along the way. While the men's game may see significant changes in 2012, it's early days and those changes won't likely happen in Australia. In the end, familiar faces will remain and familiar story lines will likely unfold.

Quarter 1

This is Nole's quarter and it's highly unlikely he will be thwarted from making the semifinals. Tipsarevic, Roddick and (young gun) Raonic loom in this part of the draw, but none are ready (or capable) of toppling a very grooved early season Djokovic. He is fresh, eager and looking for more. A possible fourth round encounter with Raonic will be highly entertaining, but over five sets on a slower hard court it's hard to imagine Raonic upsetting Djokovic. Tipsarevic, playing the best tennis of his life sits in David Ferrer's part of the draw, but we feel like Tipsarevic will experience a letdown and may not even get that far. Either way Ferrer is almost definitely Djokovic's opponent in the quarters. Their last two encounters have been lopsided affairs in favour of both men. This time though the tide will continue to turn for Novak and he will get to his seventh straight Grand Slam semifinal.

Quarter 2

Andy Murray has minefields all over his quarter of the draw, but on early season form alone he will still get through in an uncomplicated fashion. After a tricky first round encounter with American Ryan Harrison he plays a series of talented but not terribly threatening opponents and after an entertaining fourth round clash with Monfils, he should get to what would be a highly anticipated quarterfinal against Jo-Wilfried Tsonga. Both guys are coming into Melbourne off early season wins and late season brilliance. It should be a great clash, but Murray really owns Tsonga and it's very difficult to see Tsonga's go-for-broke style working any better against Murray now than it has in the past.

Quarter 3

Federer. It's simple. No one will bother him here. No disrespect to the likes of Del Potro, Dolgopolov and Fish, but Federer is on a mission and will not be derailed before the semifinals. An interesting fourth round clash with Dolgopolov is likely and a possible quarterfinal clash with Del Potro looms. But we don't think JMDP will get there. The draw will likely hold and the Swiss Maestro will never really be threatened by Fish. Book Fed in the semis.

Quarter 4

If any quarter is not going to go to form it is this one. It's probably a surprising statement since; on paper Nadal has the least threatening draw of the top four seeds. Victorious in Sidney, Jarkko Nieminen has a surge of early season confidence, Tomas Berdych is capable of catching fire and hitting through anyone and they are both in Nadal's section. John Isner who consistently gives Nadal fits is a potential fourth round opponent, but the reason for lack of confidence in Nadal's chances, is not his competition, but in Nadal himself. He showed us nothing in the Abu Dhabi exhibition or in Doha that tells us he's found any answers ahead of the 2012 season. While there is no reason to doubt that his shoulder is sore we can't help wonder if the real injury plaguing Nadal is still mental. He seems to lack the confidence and the will it would take to win in Melbourne. Look for a dark horse semifinalist to come out of this section. We pick John Isner to ride a soft draw (Neimenen notwithstanding) to an upset fourth round win over Nadal. Isner is at even money to get by Berdych or Baghdatis in the quarterfinals and we like his chances to meet Federer in the semifinals.

Semifinals

While we feel Murray is due, we just can't go with a guy who seems to have a mental block at the semis of a major. We also can't forget his semifinal against Djokovic in Rome. He gulped at the enormity of beating Djokovic and ending the 'streak'. He let Nole slip out of the noose and for his part Djokovic showed his mental super powers, the kind of powers that are a pre-requisite against a top player at the later stages of a Grand Slam.

Djokovic defeats Murray
Federer defeats Isner

Final
If this were Flushing Meadows, we would go with Federer, but it's Flinders Park and Djokovic just suits this surface better than Roger. It will be a night match, like last year’s semifinal, and Federer just cannot hit through Nole on this surface (particularly at night). It's also hard to imagine Djokovic getting to this stage, on his favourite surface and letting the chance slip away.

Djokovic defeats Federer

Australian Open Women's Preview

The Australian Open begins Monday. Here is our take on the Women's Singles draw. For the first time in a long while there is real buzz about the Women's game. Victoria Azarenka comes into Melbourne with the hot hand. Kvitova has a shot at Number One and Serena Williams is looking to re-establish herself as a Grand Slam champion. It should definitley be an interesting fortnight but in the end it is most likely that the latter will leave Australia with the seasons first Grand Slam title.

Quarter 1

We at TNC have some serious doubt about Wozniaki's mental and physical health and predict a surprise exit from the AO. Historically it is the hard court slams where Caro excels, but this is going to be a re-grouping year for Caroline and we really don't see her getting beyond the quarterfinals. That presents an opportunity for someone on her quarter and we say why not Jelena Jankovic. Kim Clijsters is in the mix, but we really doubt we will see Clijsters in the second week and so, while she could win it all, we think she will bow out, possibly with a retirement as early as week one. Jankovic had an up-and-down 2011, but there is room for her in this draw and she could ride a good (slightly injury ridden) draw to the semi-finals.

Quarter 2

Agnieszka Radwanska is a dark horse in the first major of 2012, but we have to tip Azarenka to come out of this quarter to contest her second Grand Slam semifinal in the last 12 months. Outside Radwanska there doesn't seem to be anyone who can stop Azarenka and it just may be her year. The only problem for Vika is that Agnieszka plays the kind of tennis that can cause Victoria to implode with unforced errors. But she seems ready to deal with momentary lapses in concentration and right her ship mid-match. At 22 it is time for her to make her move. This AO seems more important for Azarenka than any other player in the draw.

Quarter 3

Everything tells us to bet against Serena Williams at this year's AO, but we've been rope-a-doped before and watched Serena run to the title, and this year there is just no one in Serena's quarter who can bother her, even if she is a little hurt. The reality is only injury, apathy or a temper tantrum can take her out of a hard-court slam. Barring none of those happen book Serena into the semifinals. An interesting round of 16 match with hard hitting Estonian Kaia Kanepi looms, but while being possibly entertaining Kanepi isn't going to bother Serena. Maria Sharapova is in this quarter as well as Sabine Lisicki, but neither one comes into Australia looking like a potential champ. Even at less than her best neither woman will bother Serena.

Quarter 4

On paper, Petra Kvitova has perhaps the least daunting draw of the top seeds and like Williams it is tough to see how Petra doesn't get to the semifinals. An interesting fourth rounder with Ivanovic is possible, but Kvitova's run to the semifinals looks pretty secure. Sam Stosur is Kvitova's potential quarterfinal opponent, but given early season form it doesn't look like that will happen. Good opportunity for Marion Bartoli though she should make it to at least the quarterfinals and has a shot a Kvitova. Nonethless, when all is said and done Kvitova should get through without too much complication.

Semifinals
Azarenka defeats Jankovic
Williams defeats Kvitova

We're just not ready to bet against Serena at the later stages of a slam. Petra will have to wait for her second slam and Azarenka will have to settle for getting to her first major final.

Finals
Williams defeats Azarenka

Pre-Oz Open Women's Analysis

Will the new world number one please stand-up? We are all waiting for a worthy world number one on the WTA. There hasn't been a viable year-end champion since...we can't even remember! Will it be Petra Kvitova? She has a Golden Opportunity in Australia! Her two biggest threats (Williams and Clijsters) are injured and she has a good head-to-head record with the only other two women who look ready to threaten (Na Li and Victoria Azarenka). That said the speed of the Australian Open courts do not help Kvitova and we at TNC can't help but cast a keen eye on Azarenka.

Doesn't it just seem like the cards are setting up perfectly for Victoria? We feel like it might be 'Now or Never' for the woman nicknamed Vika. She's playing great, in the zone ball, early in the season and there are a rash of injuries heading into the first major of the year.

The biggest names to claim victories so far in 2012 are Jie Zheng and Kaia Kanepi. Names that don't exactly instill fear in the hearts of WTA players. Taking nothing away from Kanepi, in particular who got through four pretty big names in easy fashion to claim the Brisbane International. If anyone is our dark horse going into the Oz Open it has to be her!

Hobart isn't likely to tell us much about who might claim the trophy in Melbourne, but perhaps the Sydney champ will and given the dearth of competition showing up healthy,  Azarenka may just end up being the woman to beat! We will wait for the draw to make a strong prediction, but Azarenka is a definite front runner. If she draws Kvitova in the semifinals then Vika might be the 2012 best bet.

Serena Williams you ask? What about her? We know she can win anything she enters and she has a great record in Melbourne, but for the first time we have doubts about Serena. They may be quickly erased when the Open starts on Monday, but Serena is now over 30 and coming in on a bum-ankle. Injuries to an aged player are much more lethal than they are to the young, but we know that in her favour, she came to Australia in maybe her best condition since 2004. We also know that like the top 3 players on the guy's side, Serena (and Kim Clijsters) are veterans who know how to cope with the pressure of a grand slam and they can never be counted out.

Pre-Draw Predictions
Favourites: Kvitova, Azarenka
Second Tier: Serena Williams, Clijsters, Na Li
Dark Horse: Kanepi

Pre-Oz Open Men's Analysis

Tis' the Season...well, the 2012 tennis season that is. OK, really it started almost two weeks ago, but now we're getting down to the Heart of the Matter, the Australian Open. Just hours before the official 2012 draw is set, we wanted to take inventory of what's happened so far in 2012 and see if we can glean anything from what has already taken place.

Australian Open, 2012

Milos Raonic, Jo Wilfried Tsonga and Andy Murray are feeling fine! Andy Murray should have the biggest bounce in his step of the first three winners of 2012. Tsonga and Raonic, in particular are untested against the game’s best, but Murray comes in to the AO in good form and most importantly with confidence against the 'Big Three'. Although Murray fans should be cautious in their optimism, it wasn't a particularly strong field, but nonetheless, all you can do is play the draw you’re given. He did that and looked great doing it. It's amazing how a new coach can buoy a player, at least in the short term. We hope Murray can use the Lendl factor to manifest short-term success and a magnificent (and less crabby) 2012. Will it culminate in a Major victory, we're not convinced, but geesh, he is soooo close! For Tsonga and Raonic's part they will at the very least be HUGE dark horses when the AO begins Monday. I don't think any of the top 4 want either guy in their quarter.

Djokovic, Federer and Nadal are lying in wait; conserving all their physical and mental energy for the moment that matters most. These guys bring only their 'A' game to majors and despite niggling injuries and questionable early season form (except for Djokovic, who looked terrifying in Abu Dhabi) they are the heavy favourites to take home the Norman Brookes Challenge Cup in a little more than two weeks.

What about Bagdhatis? At the time of writing he had just beaten Del Potro and looked pretty effective doing so! A week ago he was brushed aside by Andy Murray and then he beats Del Potro in straights. It either says a lot about Murray or we should really be concerned about Juan Martin! We at TNC are not sold on Del Potro, since his comeback. People have been making a lot of bold predictions about his 2012 prospects (Top 4 by years end and winning a major title) but we saw very little in 2011 that makes us think he will do either. His desire, drive and nerve leave us wanting more, much more! In the only other men's event still being contested, the 'energizer bunny' David Ferrer looks to be in a good position, to pick up his first title of 2012, but I don't think it is terribly meaningful to the outcome at the Open.

Raonic, Tipsarevic and Dolgopolov are three guys who could likely upset the apple cart. They could each claim a big name scalp or two along the way. Hard to see one of these guys winning the whole thing, but on current form they are not going down without a monumental battle. I'd like to buy into the Bernard Tomic hype, but currently that is all it is, hype from the Australian media. Tomic (despite good results in Kooyong) showed very little against Murray last week and needs to win something, anything (or get close) before we will place him as any kind of factor in the first Slam of 2012.

Pre-Draw predictions
Favourites: Djokovic, Murray
Second Tier: Tsonga, Federer, Nadal
Dark Horses: Raonic, Dolgopolov

Happy Ending for Rafael

He's Back!

In the figurative dark and at the end of a long and winding road that led to Estadio Olimpico in Seville, Rafael Nadal at long last found the light, winning the Davis Cup for both Spain and himself.

This tennis year has finally ended, just twenty three days before it's set to begin again and six months since Nadal's last win, a time that was filled with frustration, anxiety and most importantly doubt. What was most striking in both of Nadal's victories against Argentina, and particularly the title clinching match against Del Potro was his fight, his passion, and something noticeably absent since his French Open triumph in June; true joy.

2011 was a great year by anybody's standards, except maybe Nadal. He played in three of the year's four Grand Slam finals, won three titles including the French Open and the Monte Carlo Masters for a record breaking seventh time. Yet it was his failures, not his success that were foremost on his mind over the last six months. Losses on his beloved clay followed by multiple defeats on grass that shook Nadal to his core. It is now up to him to figure out a way back, back to the player he was before he let the doubt in, back before he new how to lose, back before the rest of the field believed they could win.

For today though, the joy and the belief returned and we got to glimpse Nadal's way back. Maybe this Davis Cup win will be the springboard to even more success. The same springboard Novak Djokovic used last year, and perhaps this victory is the start of wins that define him instead of losses that defeat him. Tennis needs this Nadal, Djokovic needs this Nadal and most importantly Nadal needs him as well.

We at TNC believe the trivalry with Djokovic and Federer will reach it's apex in 2012 and their battles will define the tennis year. Nadal is too good and too young not to rise again, and if this win for his country has proved anything to him, it's that even in his nadir, he can summon the courage and the will to win. And knowing that is his way back.

Sportsman of the Year - Djokovic Please

2011 was about one player and one player only, and one day before Sports Illustrated announces its Sportsman of the Year, we at TNC are hoping that, finally tennis gets it due. It wasn't just Novak's win-loss percentage, which Federer fans will argue doesn't match Fed's best season; it's the entire prose that makes up Djokovic's unlikely story and incredible rise.

There are three facts about this tennis season, that should make the player know to fans as Nole, the 2011 Sportsman of the Year.

The first is the fact that Novak rose from the ashes of 2010 (if number 3 can be called ashes) and dominated the two guys who have invariably been called the greatest players of all time, compiling a 10-1 head-to-head record with Federer and Nadal and a confounding 21-4 record against the ATP top 10. It's the fact that Djokovic won 3 Grandslams (2 more than his career total to that point), 5 Masters titles (equaling his career total in a single year). It's the fact that he came into 2011 with an 0-5 record in finals against Rafa Nadal and left 2011 owning a 6-5 career head-to-head, including two wins in Grand Slam finals. And it's the fact that he won 10 of is 28 career titles in a single season. It was such a prolific season from every perspective and despite the statistics, the quality of his 2011 campaign just cannot be surpassed.

The second fact is that Novak brought tennis back into the sports conversation. As much as tennis fanatics loved the Fedal era, and as much as sportswriters waxed poetically about their rivalry, the Fed/Nadal story line had grown stale in the larger arena of big-time pro sports. Djokovic's rise was so startling, that winning streak so extreme, the domination so complete (all surfaces, all continents, all opponents) even the most main stream media focused their attention and headlines on tennis. The attention of main stream media, particularly in the U.S. is vital for the growth of a sport that has increasingly been disappearing from the North American air waves. The Djoker-effect will continue to peak interest in 2012. How will Nadal respond? Will a late season charge by Murray and Federer change the story line for 2012? Can the rest of the ATP solve the djoker-naught?

Finally, the third reason is that forehand...

...double match point down against Federer, fifth set of the US Open semifinal and Nole hits a shot for the ages, eventually breaking back in a critical 10th game and breaking the heart of the Swiss Maestro. The shot was so unfathomable and the comeback so unlikely, in a microcosm the match was the 2011 tennis season and it defined everything about Djokovic's heart, guts and mind in 2011 and it is the reason he should be 2011's Sportsman of the Year.

It's only a matter of hours until we find out whether tennis will gets its due for the first time in 35 years. It would be a great honour for Djokovic and confirm his real impact on our sport. The historical place of Novak Djokovic remains to be written, but for 2011, the unlikely champion from a war-torn but resilient and patriotic nation is absolutely the King of Sport.

Greatness, within their grasp

Djokovic falls to Rochus and 24 hours later Murray falls to Mardy Fish. What is going on with the top seeds in Men’s tennis? I’m inclined to just pick on Murray and Djoko and write a blog titled ‘Choking on the air at the top’. But I’m not convinced any of the top guys are in any better position.

This is a golden opportunity for Nadal to regain is number 2 ranking. It’s unlikely that it will happen here, but he can certainly gain ground with a strong finish in Key Biscayne. Problem is I don’t think Nadal will go deep in this draw. The rest of the field is looking at the top 4 guys and they see opportunity; and when opportunity presents itself, they’re gonna grab it…or are they. That’s the thing about opportunity, when it presents itself you still need courage to reach for it.