Pre-Oz Open Men's Analysis

Tis' the Season...well, the 2012 tennis season that is. OK, really it started almost two weeks ago, but now we're getting down to the Heart of the Matter, the Australian Open. Just hours before the official 2012 draw is set, we wanted to take inventory of what's happened so far in 2012 and see if we can glean anything from what has already taken place.

Australian Open, 2012

Milos Raonic, Jo Wilfried Tsonga and Andy Murray are feeling fine! Andy Murray should have the biggest bounce in his step of the first three winners of 2012. Tsonga and Raonic, in particular are untested against the game’s best, but Murray comes in to the AO in good form and most importantly with confidence against the 'Big Three'. Although Murray fans should be cautious in their optimism, it wasn't a particularly strong field, but nonetheless, all you can do is play the draw you’re given. He did that and looked great doing it. It's amazing how a new coach can buoy a player, at least in the short term. We hope Murray can use the Lendl factor to manifest short-term success and a magnificent (and less crabby) 2012. Will it culminate in a Major victory, we're not convinced, but geesh, he is soooo close! For Tsonga and Raonic's part they will at the very least be HUGE dark horses when the AO begins Monday. I don't think any of the top 4 want either guy in their quarter.

Djokovic, Federer and Nadal are lying in wait; conserving all their physical and mental energy for the moment that matters most. These guys bring only their 'A' game to majors and despite niggling injuries and questionable early season form (except for Djokovic, who looked terrifying in Abu Dhabi) they are the heavy favourites to take home the Norman Brookes Challenge Cup in a little more than two weeks.

What about Bagdhatis? At the time of writing he had just beaten Del Potro and looked pretty effective doing so! A week ago he was brushed aside by Andy Murray and then he beats Del Potro in straights. It either says a lot about Murray or we should really be concerned about Juan Martin! We at TNC are not sold on Del Potro, since his comeback. People have been making a lot of bold predictions about his 2012 prospects (Top 4 by years end and winning a major title) but we saw very little in 2011 that makes us think he will do either. His desire, drive and nerve leave us wanting more, much more! In the only other men's event still being contested, the 'energizer bunny' David Ferrer looks to be in a good position, to pick up his first title of 2012, but I don't think it is terribly meaningful to the outcome at the Open.

Raonic, Tipsarevic and Dolgopolov are three guys who could likely upset the apple cart. They could each claim a big name scalp or two along the way. Hard to see one of these guys winning the whole thing, but on current form they are not going down without a monumental battle. I'd like to buy into the Bernard Tomic hype, but currently that is all it is, hype from the Australian media. Tomic (despite good results in Kooyong) showed very little against Murray last week and needs to win something, anything (or get close) before we will place him as any kind of factor in the first Slam of 2012.

Pre-Draw predictions
Favourites: Djokovic, Murray
Second Tier: Tsonga, Federer, Nadal
Dark Horses: Raonic, Dolgopolov