Australian Open 2010 - Women's Draw Analysis

O.K. it was a bit of a cheap shot in the men’s draw analysis to say that we haven’t been very excited to blog about the women’s draw at a slam, but women’s tennis is now rejuvenated with new (…err recycled) blood. I would argue that the women’s game still lacks the depth and drama of the men’s game, but the return of Henin, Clijsters and Sharapova makes deconstructing a draw a much more interesting task. But for all the new and 're-newed' contenders, it's a likely champion who will prevail.

Quarter 1

Tough quarter of the draw for Serena Williams, and while she performs well in Australia her half of the draw is chock-a-block with potential spoilers, including Sister Venus. Her quarter alone contains Spanish spoiler Carla Suarez Navarro, Sabine Lisiki, the heir apparent to Steffi Graf, Aussie Vet Sam Stosur, Ana Ivanovic, Vera Zvonareva and the woman who vanquished Williams last year in Miami, Victoria Azarenka.

That said, only two of those names (Zvonareva and Azarenka) have ever beaten Serena and while she will definitely meet resistance, particularly in an intriguing possible fourth round encounter with Lisiki, an untested rivalry that I’m looking forward to. You just can’t bet against Serena, particularly in the twilight of an astonishing career.

Quarterfinal Prediction: Serena Williams

Quarter 2

The draw Gods were good to Venus Williams. We at theNETcourt really hope she does something with it. Her path appears unfettered until the quarterfinals. However she opens with a tricky first rounder against Lucie Safarova. She’s never lost to Safarova but the last couple of matches have gone the distance, plus Safarova took a love set off of eventual Sidney champ Kim Clijsters. She is a dangerous opponent in the first round. If Venus wants to be in Australia and really wants to win, then this match is hers, and she should set up an interesting quarterfinal against Caroline Wozniaki. Wozniaki is a dangerous foe for Williams because she is consistent and can unleash at unexpected times. Williams has never lost to Wozniaki, but they haven’t played since early 2008 and the 2010 version of Wozniaki is a different competitor. This quarter has tons of talent, but not a lot of contenders. Wozniaki opens against Canada’s own Aleksandra Wozniak. Who doesn’t love the look of Wozniaki vs. Wozniak on the draw card? After that, Wozniaki should be challenged by names like, Pironkova, Hantuchova, and Li. But, ultimately she should meet up with Venus and will ultimately prevail.

Quarterfinal Prediction: Caroline Wozniaki



Quarter 3
The quarter from hell, at least as far as Elena Dementieva is concerned. Let’s see, if she were to go the distance it would likely have to play out like this:

Round 1: Vera Dushevina (talented veteran)
Round 2: Justine Henin (former world number 1, and possible future number 1)
Round 3: Sorana Cirstea (talented and dangerous newcomer)
Round 4: Yanina Wickmayer (dangerous newcomer and US Open quarterfinalist)
Quarterfinals: Kim Clijsters (US Open champion)
Semifinals: Maria Sharapova
Finals: Serena Williams

In three words: Not Gonna Happen.

This is Henin’s quarter to win, and after a mouth watering quarterfinal with Clijsters Henin should find herself in another grand slam semi. There are so many intriguing match ups for both Henin and Clijsters before the quarterfinals, but both women will get there and Henin will prevail.

Quarterfinal Prediction: Henin

Quarter 4
If Maria Sharapova had wished for the perfect draw to start her twenty-ten campaign. She couldn’t have crafted it any better than what the draw gods delivered for the 2010 Aussie Open. Names like Kirilenko, Zheng, Cibulkova and Jankovic loom, but none will stop a fresh and eager Sharapova whose been given a cream-puff of a quarterfinal draw. She is a veteran who has seen the Belgians return and find immediate success; buoyed and motivated by their returns and this draw, look for Sharapova in the semifinals.

Quarterfinal Prediction: Sharapova

Semifinal 1
This is Serena William’s match to win or lose. Wozniaki will have spent a lot of mental energy getting to another grand slam semi and unless Serena is off, way off, her lack of obvious weapons will be her demise. Plus Serena is becoming painfully aware of her career wasted opportunities and is eager to make up for both lost time and that embarrassing US Open semifinal.

S. Williams def Wozniaki

Semifinal 2
It feels like 2006 again. We’re talking about Henin and Sharapova contesting a place in the final. While I’m tempted to go with Henin, I think Sharapova will be the more rested of the two going into this semifinal, particularly after Henin and Clijsters tear each other apart in the quarters. That alone is the reason I am picking Sharapova for the final.

Sharapova def Henin

Final

Her veteran status, her champion mindset and all those wasted opportunities will all fuel a fifth Australian Open title win for Serena Williams. Look for a first time Serena repeat down under. But don’t look for a repeat of the 2006 final between Sharapova and Williams, this one will be close.

S. Williams def Sharapova

Possible First Round upsets: Look for Perry over Ivanovic and Safarova over V. Williams (possible, if we see the same Venus we’ve seen over the last few years in Australia).