The Australian Open gets underway in less than 24 hours and everyone is pontificating on the outcome. At theNETcourt we don’t pretend to know whose going to win, because, let’s be honest…no one does, but we’ll do our best to break down the draws. It’s been a frenetic start to the twenty-ten season and it seems like so much has already happened. We’ve seen the rise and fall of Rafael Nadal, the resurrection of Richard Gasquet, a supposed decline of Roger Federer and in the world of women’s tennis a little thing we’re calling the Belgian revolution (and man that’s been fun!). Is it any wonder Stacey Allastar and David Shoemaker are grinning like Cheshire cats on their WTA tour page bios? Women’s tennis just got a nuclear boost in interest and enthusiasm, and for the first time in a long time we’re actually excited to blog about the Women’s draw at a major…but more on that tomorrow.
Today we are looking at the Men’s draw, and as I said at the opening of this blog, we’re not predicting a winner, we’re just using common sense and intuition to say who will most likely be the last man standing… (Federer) oops…I’m getting ahead of myself.
Quarter 1
Since he sits atop the draw we might as well start with FED. Everyone’s talking about his tough draw, but let’s face it, three former number ones, who are long-in-the-tooth and to whom Roger has not lost since 2004, does not exactly spell
d-i-s-a-s-t-e-r. An intriguing fourth round match looms against Sidney champ Baghdatis. The Cypriot looks full of life to start the season, but he lacks the guns, guts and stamina to threaten Federer in a five set affair. Then there is Davydenko. You’ve gotta appreciate his results over the last four months, and particularly turning around a dismal 0-12 record against Roger, but there is just no way Kolya is going to beat Roger in a quarterfinal slam match, especially where Roger is gunning to extend an already ridiculous run of 22 straight slam semifinals.
Quarterfinal Prediction: Federer
Quarter 2
There are just very few challengers to Novak Djokovic in quarter 2 and given how he ended 2009 I’m not about to bet against him getting to the semi-finals. Djokovic however comes in with a bit of rust, having played no tour events leading up to the Australian Open and performing pretty dismally at the Kooyong exhibition event this week. I know, I know, exhibitions are meaningless, but isn’t that only true if you win. Losses diminish belief and no one runs on belief more than the 22 year old Serb. Nonetheless, after a challenge from Soderling who will likely beat Tsonga in an intriguing fourth round encounter, Djokovic should find himself in his second Australian Open semifinal.
Quarterfinal Prediction: Djokovic
Quarter 3
Juan Martin Del Potro has a pretty easy run to the fourth round. In this quarter I’m interested to see Bernard Tomic (coming off an exhibition win over Djokovic in Kooyong) take on Marin Cilic in round three. But, Cilic should get through comfortably to set up a rematch of his U.S. Open semifinal against Del Potro. Waiting in the quarter finals for (likely winner) Del Potro will be Andy Roddick or Sam Querry. Those two have a very intriguing potential third round match. I’m tempted to pick Querry in that one, but after a hugely disappointing third round loss to another hard serving countryman (John Isner) at the US Open, Roddick isn’t likely to let another one slip through his hands. However his run will end with Del Potro, Roddick has a lack of belief and a record of coming up short against Juan Martin, plus Del Potro just keeps getting better.
Quarterfinal prediction: Del Potro
Quarter 4
Despite being drawn in the same quarter, at least Rafael Nadal and Andy Murray have relatively open paths to their quarterfinal showdown. Providing Gael Monfils gets by Aukland champ, Isner, there is an intriguing potential fourth round clash between Monfils and Murray. This is an untested rivalry and could be very entertaining. But unless we see the Monfils who showed up at the Paris Masters last fall we should get the quarterfinal everyone is hoping for. Nadal will be absolutely unbothered in his run through the fourth round and should be fairly fresh for his quarterfinal encounter against Murray. Nadal has something to prove (even more than Murray) and a much better grand slam and head-to-head record. Plus, Nadal took care of him on hard courts a couple of times in 2009, even in best of three matches. Look for a fresher and ferocious Nadal to move past Murray into the semifinals.
Quarterfinal Prediction: Nadal
Semifinal 1
You’ve got to go with Federer in this one. History is the best teacher and (with the exception of two years ago) we just haven’t seen Djokovic produce his best tennis against Federer at this stage of a major. Also, Roger has been talking in the media about how he is only in the middle of his career and how he aims to dominate tennis again. While both of those may be wishful thinking, Federer is giving the impression that, at the Slams at least, he’s in it to win it.
Semi-final 1
Federer def Djokovic
Semifinal 2
Del Potro is only beginning to find his legs, but his concussive forehand and flat shots seem to be, on hard courts at least, Nadal’s kryptonite. Nadal will put up a much bigger battle here than he did at the U.S. Open and if Del Potro lets it turn into a running game then Nadal could win. But Del Potro will out-muscle and out-hit Nadal, probably in four sets and make his second consecutive grand slam final.
Semi-final 2
Del Potro def Nadal
Final
Federer learned his lesson at the U.S. Open, it won’t happen again!
Federer def Del Potro
Possible First Round upsets: None, but if I had to choose (and they’re not really upsets) how about; Garcia Lopez over Wawrinka and Clement over Blake. I’d also say Gasquet over Youzhny, but that’s not really an upset either.
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