Clijsters comes back to earth

The Belgian's are coming, the Belgians are coming...wait a minute...the Belgians are...what's happening to the...

Most tennis pundits (see tennis magazine's editor’s predictions) put Kim Clijsters as the most likely winner of the 2010 Australian Open. Only Bill Gray and Abigail Lorge are still in the running for correctly picking the Champs on the men's and women's side. What happened Friday night in Melbourne? And for that matter, who sees Justine Henin going all the way? She is a sentimental pick for some, but by the half-way mark of this first major of the year, she hasn't looked like a potential winner.

The reality is, putting Clijsters or Henin as a pick for Champion at this year's Australian, speaks more to the excitement of their return than to the legitimacy of their chances. So much goes into winning a major, not the least of which is match readiness. Clijsters played only one tournament between the US Open and Australia and Henin has played only one tournament in a year and a half. Their chances of hoisting the Australian open are about as realistic as Clijster's chances of winning the US Open last September.

...but, wait a minute...didn't Clijster's win the US Open? you ask. And that is the point of this blog. Clijsters did win, and it was ridiculously unlikely; and the chances of lightning striking the same place twice are just as unlikely. It can happen, but it probably won't. Kim winning the Australian Open (or Justine for that matter) it could have happened, but it wasn’t likely. Now, for Kim it definitely won't. And I don't think it will for Justine either.

Clijster's US Open run was destiny, it was fortuitous, it was divine...but everything had to line up properly. Add to it, there were NO EXPECTATIONS, that heady weight that comes from past success. Kim won the warm up event in Sydney and suddenly she was the favourite, no two ways about it. The fact the Justine almost won, made her a realistic second pick. The reality is that the expectations on both of them were not based on reality.

Kim and Justine should have a great year, and we’re backing Henin to finish 2010 ranked number one. I still think Serena will have the best year, and the better slam resume for the calendar year, but Henin competes everywhere and should deliver a consistent (French Open Victory) year out pacing the competition in WTA ranking points. But I just wouldn't pick either one to win the first major of the year. At the half-way point Serena is still the one!