Pre-Oz Open Men's Analysis

Tis' the Season...well, the 2012 tennis season that is. OK, really it started almost two weeks ago, but now we're getting down to the Heart of the Matter, the Australian Open. Just hours before the official 2012 draw is set, we wanted to take inventory of what's happened so far in 2012 and see if we can glean anything from what has already taken place.

Australian Open, 2012

Milos Raonic, Jo Wilfried Tsonga and Andy Murray are feeling fine! Andy Murray should have the biggest bounce in his step of the first three winners of 2012. Tsonga and Raonic, in particular are untested against the game’s best, but Murray comes in to the AO in good form and most importantly with confidence against the 'Big Three'. Although Murray fans should be cautious in their optimism, it wasn't a particularly strong field, but nonetheless, all you can do is play the draw you’re given. He did that and looked great doing it. It's amazing how a new coach can buoy a player, at least in the short term. We hope Murray can use the Lendl factor to manifest short-term success and a magnificent (and less crabby) 2012. Will it culminate in a Major victory, we're not convinced, but geesh, he is soooo close! For Tsonga and Raonic's part they will at the very least be HUGE dark horses when the AO begins Monday. I don't think any of the top 4 want either guy in their quarter.

Djokovic, Federer and Nadal are lying in wait; conserving all their physical and mental energy for the moment that matters most. These guys bring only their 'A' game to majors and despite niggling injuries and questionable early season form (except for Djokovic, who looked terrifying in Abu Dhabi) they are the heavy favourites to take home the Norman Brookes Challenge Cup in a little more than two weeks.

What about Bagdhatis? At the time of writing he had just beaten Del Potro and looked pretty effective doing so! A week ago he was brushed aside by Andy Murray and then he beats Del Potro in straights. It either says a lot about Murray or we should really be concerned about Juan Martin! We at TNC are not sold on Del Potro, since his comeback. People have been making a lot of bold predictions about his 2012 prospects (Top 4 by years end and winning a major title) but we saw very little in 2011 that makes us think he will do either. His desire, drive and nerve leave us wanting more, much more! In the only other men's event still being contested, the 'energizer bunny' David Ferrer looks to be in a good position, to pick up his first title of 2012, but I don't think it is terribly meaningful to the outcome at the Open.

Raonic, Tipsarevic and Dolgopolov are three guys who could likely upset the apple cart. They could each claim a big name scalp or two along the way. Hard to see one of these guys winning the whole thing, but on current form they are not going down without a monumental battle. I'd like to buy into the Bernard Tomic hype, but currently that is all it is, hype from the Australian media. Tomic (despite good results in Kooyong) showed very little against Murray last week and needs to win something, anything (or get close) before we will place him as any kind of factor in the first Slam of 2012.

Pre-Draw predictions
Favourites: Djokovic, Murray
Second Tier: Tsonga, Federer, Nadal
Dark Horses: Raonic, Dolgopolov

Happy Ending for Rafael

He's Back!

In the figurative dark and at the end of a long and winding road that led to Estadio Olimpico in Seville, Rafael Nadal at long last found the light, winning the Davis Cup for both Spain and himself.

This tennis year has finally ended, just twenty three days before it's set to begin again and six months since Nadal's last win, a time that was filled with frustration, anxiety and most importantly doubt. What was most striking in both of Nadal's victories against Argentina, and particularly the title clinching match against Del Potro was his fight, his passion, and something noticeably absent since his French Open triumph in June; true joy.

2011 was a great year by anybody's standards, except maybe Nadal. He played in three of the year's four Grand Slam finals, won three titles including the French Open and the Monte Carlo Masters for a record breaking seventh time. Yet it was his failures, not his success that were foremost on his mind over the last six months. Losses on his beloved clay followed by multiple defeats on grass that shook Nadal to his core. It is now up to him to figure out a way back, back to the player he was before he let the doubt in, back before he new how to lose, back before the rest of the field believed they could win.

For today though, the joy and the belief returned and we got to glimpse Nadal's way back. Maybe this Davis Cup win will be the springboard to even more success. The same springboard Novak Djokovic used last year, and perhaps this victory is the start of wins that define him instead of losses that defeat him. Tennis needs this Nadal, Djokovic needs this Nadal and most importantly Nadal needs him as well.

We at TNC believe the trivalry with Djokovic and Federer will reach it's apex in 2012 and their battles will define the tennis year. Nadal is too good and too young not to rise again, and if this win for his country has proved anything to him, it's that even in his nadir, he can summon the courage and the will to win. And knowing that is his way back.

Sportsman of the Year - Djokovic Please

2011 was about one player and one player only, and one day before Sports Illustrated announces its Sportsman of the Year, we at TNC are hoping that, finally tennis gets it due. It wasn't just Novak's win-loss percentage, which Federer fans will argue doesn't match Fed's best season; it's the entire prose that makes up Djokovic's unlikely story and incredible rise.

There are three facts about this tennis season, that should make the player know to fans as Nole, the 2011 Sportsman of the Year.

The first is the fact that Novak rose from the ashes of 2010 (if number 3 can be called ashes) and dominated the two guys who have invariably been called the greatest players of all time, compiling a 10-1 head-to-head record with Federer and Nadal and a confounding 21-4 record against the ATP top 10. It's the fact that Djokovic won 3 Grandslams (2 more than his career total to that point), 5 Masters titles (equaling his career total in a single year). It's the fact that he came into 2011 with an 0-5 record in finals against Rafa Nadal and left 2011 owning a 6-5 career head-to-head, including two wins in Grand Slam finals. And it's the fact that he won 10 of is 28 career titles in a single season. It was such a prolific season from every perspective and despite the statistics, the quality of his 2011 campaign just cannot be surpassed.

The second fact is that Novak brought tennis back into the sports conversation. As much as tennis fanatics loved the Fedal era, and as much as sportswriters waxed poetically about their rivalry, the Fed/Nadal story line had grown stale in the larger arena of big-time pro sports. Djokovic's rise was so startling, that winning streak so extreme, the domination so complete (all surfaces, all continents, all opponents) even the most main stream media focused their attention and headlines on tennis. The attention of main stream media, particularly in the U.S. is vital for the growth of a sport that has increasingly been disappearing from the North American air waves. The Djoker-effect will continue to peak interest in 2012. How will Nadal respond? Will a late season charge by Murray and Federer change the story line for 2012? Can the rest of the ATP solve the djoker-naught?

Finally, the third reason is that forehand...

...double match point down against Federer, fifth set of the US Open semifinal and Nole hits a shot for the ages, eventually breaking back in a critical 10th game and breaking the heart of the Swiss Maestro. The shot was so unfathomable and the comeback so unlikely, in a microcosm the match was the 2011 tennis season and it defined everything about Djokovic's heart, guts and mind in 2011 and it is the reason he should be 2011's Sportsman of the Year.

It's only a matter of hours until we find out whether tennis will gets its due for the first time in 35 years. It would be a great honour for Djokovic and confirm his real impact on our sport. The historical place of Novak Djokovic remains to be written, but for 2011, the unlikely champion from a war-torn but resilient and patriotic nation is absolutely the King of Sport.

Greatness, within their grasp

Djokovic falls to Rochus and 24 hours later Murray falls to Mardy Fish. What is going on with the top seeds in Men’s tennis? I’m inclined to just pick on Murray and Djoko and write a blog titled ‘Choking on the air at the top’. But I’m not convinced any of the top guys are in any better position.

This is a golden opportunity for Nadal to regain is number 2 ranking. It’s unlikely that it will happen here, but he can certainly gain ground with a strong finish in Key Biscayne. Problem is I don’t think Nadal will go deep in this draw. The rest of the field is looking at the top 4 guys and they see opportunity; and when opportunity presents itself, they’re gonna grab it…or are they. That’s the thing about opportunity, when it presents itself you still need courage to reach for it.

Our Miami Vice - Men's Preview

The most historical tour event outside of the slams starts tomorrow, and ever since Butch Buchholz led the charge in 1983 to stage the best coed (non-slam) tennis tournament in the world; to the fruition of that dream in 1988 when he found its permanent home and built one of the world's finest tennis stadiums, Miami has been a dream event for players and fans alike.

It has went though several name changes (International Players Championships, Lipton Championships) but it has always boasted a slam field and with a schedule that spans the majority of a fortnight and to me just feels positively GRAND.

California Dream'n?

The first 1000 event of the season is here. Almost everyone is playing (sans the Williams sisters and Delpo) but why does it feel like a fall 1000 event rather than a spring event? Too many players are hurt, the top players speak about developing and finding their games, no one is talking about winning.

It’s not like this is New Haven leading into the US Open, this is the first of five (almost consecutive) 1000 events, with the French Open looming way, way off in the distance.

Aussie Open Rewind

The first Slam of the year is over and this one gets a B. As they say in Oz it was ‘awright’…Yeah, just ‘awright’. The Women definitely brought it, or to be more specific Serena and Justine brought it, and made the event worth while. Both women seemed to survive this aussie open, at times neither one looked capable of winning, and then at other time both looked unstoppable. The final was ‘awright’, great at times, occasionally compelling, but Henin ran out of fight in the home stretch.